Health

Does melatonin really increase heart failure risk by 89%? Here’s what the study actually found

Is Melatonin Bad for Your Heart? What the New Study Really Shows

Alarming headlines are everywhere: “Nightly melatonin use linked to an 89% higher risk of heart failure.” With millions of people using melatonin to fall asleep, it’s no surprise this made waves.

Before you throw out your melatonin bottle, it’s crucial to look past the headlines. What did the research actually find? How reliable is it? And what does the rest of the science say about melatonin and heart health?

This overview unpacks the study, explains its limitations, and outlines what a sensible, science-based approach to melatonin use should look like. (Based on insights from Dr. Brad Stanfield.)

Does melatonin really increase heart failure risk by 89%? Here’s what the study actually found

Key Points at a Glance

  • A large observational study reported a link between long‑term melatonin use and a higher risk of heart failure, hospitalizations, and death — but serious design flaws likely distort the results.
  • News coverage has focused on dramatic percentages without explaining the study’s limitations or what “association” really means.
  • Low, physiological doses of melatonin (similar to what your body naturally produces) appear to be much safer than the high-dose products commonly sold.
  • Randomized controlled trials — the strongest type of evidence — suggest melatonin may actually improve some markers of heart health in people with existing heart failure.
  • Don’t let clickbait headlines dictate your supplement decisions. Use evidence, not fear, and discuss any concerns with your healthcare provider.

1. Where Did the “Melatonin Increases Heart Failure Risk” Story Come From?

The panic started with a large study that tracked more than 130,000 adults with chronic insomnia over five years. According to the paper, people prescribed melatonin:

  • Had an 89% higher risk of developing heart failure
  • Were hospitalized more often
  • Were about twice as likely to die during the follow‑up period

Those numbers sound terrifying, so the media amplified them — often without explaining how the study was done or what its limitations were.

But big statistics can be misleading when you don’t know what’s behind them. To understand the real risk of melatonin for heart health, you have to look under the hood.


2. What Did the Researchers Actually Do?

The study was based on electronic health records from several countries. Here’s the basic design:

  • Find adults with chronic insomnia
  • Identify those who were prescribed melatonin for at least one year
  • Compare their rates of heart failure, hospital admissions, and death to similar people with insomnia who did not have a melatonin prescription

On the surface, melatonin users clearly appeared worse off. But this kind of research — called an observational study — can only show that things happen together, not that one causes the other. And in this case, there are some major problems with how the groups were defined.


3. Major Flaw #1: Who Was Counted as “Not Taking Melatonin”?

One of the biggest issues is how “non‑melatonin users” were classified.

  • In some countries in the database (such as the UK), melatonin is a prescription‑only medication.
  • In others (like the US), it’s an over‑the‑counter supplement that people can buy without any prescription.

That means many people who regularly took melatonin — but bought it off the shelf — never appeared in the database as melatonin users. They were lumped into the “non‑melatonin” group.

This misclassification matters a lot. If the comparison group secretly contains many melatonin users, you’re not actually comparing “users vs non‑users.” You’re comparing “known users vs a mixed group of users and non‑users.” That can massively distort the results and make melatonin look more dangerous than it really is.


4. Major Flaw #2: This Was Not a Randomized Controlled Trial

For assessing cause and effect, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard. In an RCT:

  • Participants are randomly assigned to take either the supplement (melatonin) or a placebo.
  • Because of randomization, both groups are similar at the start, so differences at the end are more likely to be caused by the treatment.

The melatonin–heart failure study was not randomized. It was observational:

  • People who got a prescription for melatonin likely had more severe insomnia or other health problems.
  • People without a prescription may have had milder symptoms, different lifestyles, or better overall health.

So, the study can only say, “These things occurred together,” not “Melatonin caused these outcomes.” Other factors — like the severity of insomnia itself — could easily explain the increased risk.


5. The “Ice Cream and Shark Attacks” Effect

Large databases are great at finding patterns — but not all patterns are meaningful.

A classic example:

  • Ice cream sales rise in summer.
  • Shark attacks also rise in summer.

They’re correlated, but ice cream doesn’t attract sharks. The real cause is the season: more people are swimming.

A similar issue may be happening here:

  • People with very severe insomnia are more likely to receive prescription melatonin.
  • Severe, long‑term sleep problems are already linked to higher risks of heart disease, heart failure, and premature death.

So, what if melatonin isn’t the culprit at all? The underlying insomnia and overall health status may be driving the higher heart risks seen in the study, not the melatonin itself.


6. What Do Other Studies Say About Melatonin and Heart Health?

When you zoom out beyond one observational study, the picture changes significantly.

A 2025 meta‑analysis combined data from four high‑quality randomized controlled trials in people with established heart failure. In these trials, melatonin use was associated with:

  • Better measures of heart function
  • Improved quality of life
  • Enhanced blood vessel (endothelial) function

Earlier research, including studies from 2022 in both humans and animals, also suggests melatonin can have protective effects on the cardiovascular system, likely through its antioxidant and anti‑inflammatory properties.

Taken together, the higher‑quality evidence points in the opposite direction of the scary headlines: used appropriately, melatonin is unlikely to damage the heart and might even support heart health in certain situations.


7. Is Melatonin Safe to Take?

Most current data indicate that melatonin is generally safe for short‑term or occasional use, especially at low doses close to the body’s natural production. However, there are a few important caveats:

  • Many supplements contain relatively high doses (5 mg or more).
  • We have limited long‑term safety data on these higher doses, particularly with nightly use over many years.

To put the numbers in perspective:

  • Your brain naturally produces roughly 10–80 micrograms of melatonin at night.
  • A common supplement contains 5 mg (5,000 micrograms).
  • Around 15% of that dose is absorbed, still far above what your body normally makes on its own.

So while melatonin is not inherently “dangerous,” there is a reasonable argument for using the lowest effective dose — especially if you’re taking it regularly.


8. How Much Melatonin Should You Take?

Many sleep and longevity experts recommend sticking to physiological, low doses rather than high “mega‑doses.”

A commonly suggested starting point:

  • About 0.3 mg (300 micrograms) of melatonin, which is closer to the range of natural nightly production.

Benefits of low‑dose melatonin:

  • Helps signal the body that it’s time for sleep
  • Less likely to cause grogginess the next morning
  • Reduces the risk of overwhelming the body with unnaturally high hormone levels

Always speak with your doctor or a qualified healthcare practitioner before starting melatonin, especially if you:

  • Have heart disease or heart failure
  • Take blood pressure, anticoagulant, or other heart medications
  • Are pregnant, breastfeeding, or managing other chronic conditions

9. When Is the Best Time to Take Melatonin?

Melatonin isn’t a sedative in the way many people think. It acts more like a “timekeeper” — what scientists call a chronobiotic — helping to adjust your internal body clock.

For most people, timing matters more than dose:

  • Take melatonin roughly 1.5–2 hours before your target bedtime.
  • This aligns with your body’s natural melatonin rise and helps gently shift you toward sleep.

To maximize its effectiveness:

  • Dim lights in the evening and avoid bright screens close to bedtime.
  • Bright light, especially blue light, suppresses your own melatonin production and can counteract the supplement’s effect.

10. Don’t Panic — Use Melatonin Thoughtfully

The media often swings between extremes: one week a supplement is a miracle cure, the next it’s a health disaster. Reality is usually more balanced.

Based on current evidence:

  • There is no strong proof that reasonable melatonin use directly causes heart failure.
  • Observational data raising concerns are heavily limited by design flaws.
  • Randomized trials suggest potential cardiovascular benefits in people with heart failure.

Still, that doesn’t mean “more is better.” A prudent approach is:

  • Avoid very high doses unless specifically advised by a clinician.
  • Use melatonin as a tool — ideally short‑term or intermittently — rather than a permanent nightly crutch.
  • Focus on sleep hygiene (light exposure, caffeine timing, regular schedule) as the foundation, using supplements as a secondary aid.

Bonus: Another Supplement That May Help Sleep

Melatonin isn’t the only option for improving sleep quality. Other, lesser‑known supplements — such as certain magnesium forms or specific amino acids — have been studied for their sleep‑supporting effects, sometimes with fewer concerns about hormonal impact.

If you’re interested in science‑backed sleep strategies, keep exploring the research on alternative sleep aids and lifestyle changes. Often, combining better sleep habits with the right low‑dose supplement offers the best long‑term results.


Conclusion: How to Use Melatonin Safely and Smartly

If you depend on melatonin to ease into sleep, there’s no need to be terrified by recent headlines. The study that triggered the panic has serious limitations, and higher‑quality research suggests melatonin can be safe — and potentially heart‑friendly — when used correctly.

Practical takeaways:

  1. Don’t let sensational headlines replace medical advice.
  2. Favor low, physiologic doses (around 0.3 mg) rather than high‑dose products.
  3. Take melatonin about two hours before bedtime and support it with good sleep hygiene.
  4. Discuss long‑term or daily melatonin use with your doctor, especially if you have heart issues or other chronic conditions.

Used in moderation and with guidance, melatonin can remain a helpful tool in your sleep toolkit — without putting your heart unnecessarily at risk.

Source: Dr. Brad Stanfield